报告题目：Modeling China’s Electricity Futures: Developing an affordable, reliable, and clean energy system in China
The decisions made today about the electric power sector in China will have profound and long-lasting implications not only for the economic and social well-being of its citizens in China but will also affect the availability and prices of energy resources worldwide, and the state of our natural environment. While a precise forecast of China’s electricity demand is impossible, an understanding of its many drivers, and a projection of how these may lead to different consumption levels is a sine qua non for robust planning of the capacity to generate transmit and distribute electrical power. Also, capacity planning decisions about the electric power sector are as consequential as they are difficult to make. This is because meeting electricity demand often requires irreversible investments in expensive and long-term infrastructure that takes years to design and implement, and which acts as a constraint on future choices. Here we develop a bottom-up framework for characterizing possible futures of high-resolution electricity demand in China. Also, we develop an Integrated Resource Planning Modeling Framework for the electricity sector in China and consider the uncertainties, path dependencies, supply resources, and the characteristics of different geographic regions affecting economic and environmental outcomes.
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