【能源经济与管理学术论坛】

国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）周文戟讲座通知

讲座题目：

Decarbonization pathways for developing Asia consistent with well below 2 °C

低于两度气候目标下亚洲发展中国家的低碳发展路径

主讲人：周文戟，国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）能源组研究员。主要研究领域包括能源与低碳技术评估，投资需求分析，能源投资策略与风险评价。

时间：2018年10月12日（星期五），14:00-16:00 pm

地点：新主楼A618

邀请人：范英教授

摘要：

Exploring potential future pathways for developing Asia’s energy consumption, CO2 emissions and infrastructure investment needs is of great importance to understand how may contribute to the global climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement. This study employs the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM to investigate mid-century decarbonization strategies for developing Asia to 2050. Our results indicate that a radical change in developing Asia’s energy portfolio is required, particularly the reduction of fossil fuel utilization, enhancement of low-carbon energy supply, and boosting of energy efficiency efforts. In scenarios consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, electricity generation and final energy consumption becomes thoroughly dominated by low-carbon energy by 2050. This transformation leads to a deep cut of CO2 emissions by 78% and 93% in the two scenarios. In terms of investment needs beyond a baseline scenario, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways imply that a scale of low-carbon energy and energy efficiency investment needs to double and triple to 2050 relative to the baseline, respectively. These increases would be partially offset by disinvestment in coal, oil and natural gas extraction and conversion infrastructure. Decarbonization of the energy system also impacts the capital needed for making progress on other sustainable development goals, such as air pollution, clean water and food security, though these incremental changes are comparatively small.

简介：

周文戟，国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）能源组研究员。主要研究领域包括能源与低碳技术评估，投资需求分析，能源投资策略与风险评价。在IIASA期间，周文戟博士主要利用全球主流综合评估模型（integrated assessment modeling, IAM）分析巴黎气候目标下的全球能源与低碳技术投资需求，为IPCC低碳评估报告、世界银行可持续发展报告提供情景分析。周文戟博士的主要工作发表于Nature Energy, Energy, Applied Energy等能源领域主流期刊。在加入IIASA之前，周文戟博士在中国航空油料集团从事石油市场方面工作，于2011年和2007年在清华大学化学工程系分别获得博士和硕士学位。